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Wednesday, January 21st, 2015

Population Implosion? Low Fertility and Policy Responses in the European Union

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Source:     Rand Corporation
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Link: Population Implosion? Low Fertility and Policy Responses in the European Union
Stephan:   In terms of Europe where nations such a France, U.K. and Germany have huge unassimilated minorities the fact that the Muslim minority has a birth rate of 4.5 children per couple while the indigenous Europeans are below the sustainable threshold of 1.85 live births (or 2.1 by some calculation). Over time that means the percentage of the population that is not assimilated increases dramatically, while the percentage of native Europeans declines. In the U.S. where assimilation is far better this disparity still has consequences. It plays out as Caucasians become a smaller and smaller portion of the total population.

European kidsAcross Europe, birth rates are falling and family sizes are shrinking. The total fertility rate is now less than two children per woman in every member nation in the European Union (see Figure 1). As a result, European populations are either growing very slowly or beginning to decrease.

At the same time, low fertility is accelerating the ageing of European populations. As a region, Europe in 2000 had the highest percentage of people age 65 or older — 15 percent. According to data from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, this percentage is expected to nearly double by 2050.[1]

These demographic trends portend difficult times ahead for European economies. For example, a shrinking workforce can reduce productivity. At the same time, the growing proportion of elderly individuals threatens the solvency of pension and social insurance systems. As household sizes decrease, the ability to care for the elderly diminishes. Meanwhile, elderly people face growing health care needs and costs. Taken together, these developments could pose significant barriers to achieving the European Union (EU) goals of full employment, economic growth, and social cohesion.

Concern […]

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