Seven Questions: Iraq’s Economy

Stephan:  Ali Allawi is the Iraqi minister of finance.

To defeat the Iraqi insurgency, there are few tasks more vital than improving the country’s struggling economy.Prior to Iraq’s December parliamentary elections, FP sat down with Ali Allawi, Iraq’s finance minister, to talk about reconstruction, corruption, and the U.S. presence in Iraq. FOREIGN POLICY: What do you think of the U.S. approach to Iraq’s economy following the fall of Saddam? Ali Allawi: There was work done on the economy in seminars and discussion groups organized by the State Department. These reports did not filter into the policymaking apparatus. If there was a policy theme, it was a kind of crude version of the Washington Consensus€that all Iraq needed was quick and surgical action, shock therapy. And there was a group, then led by M. Peter McPherson, the former president of Michigan State University, that tried to introduce radical economic reforms in the first few weeks. But it ended chaotically, because the economy wasn’t the top priority of the political administration. In the banking sector, there was an attempt to offset basically all the government deposits against government liabilities. [U.S. officials] also wanted to sell off the state-owned enterprises, expecting that they would then be reorganized under the […]

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Case Bringing New Scrutiny To a System and a Profession

Stephan: 

The biggest corruption scandal to infect Congress in a generation took down one of the best-connected lobbyists in Washington yesterday. The questions echoing around the capital were what other careers — and what other familiar ways of doing business — are endangered. Jack Abramoff represented the most flamboyant and extreme example of a brand of influence trading that flourished after the Republican takeover of the House of Representatives 11 years ago. Now, some GOP strategists fear that the fallout from his case could affect the party’s efforts to keep control in the November midterm elections. Abramoff was among the lobbyists most closely associated with the K Street Project, which was initiated by his friend Tom DeLay (R-Tex.), now the former House majority leader, once the GOP vaulted to power. It was an aggressive program designed to force corporations and trade associations to hire more GOP-connected lobbyists in what at times became an almost seamless relationship between Capitol Hill lawmakers and some firms that sought to influence them. Now Abramoff has become a symbol of a system out of control. His agreement to plead guilty to three criminal counts and cooperate with prosecutors threatens to ensnare other lawmakers […]

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Top Republican Lobbyist Pleads Guilty in US Corruption Case

Stephan:  This story about general, but largely Republican, corruption is oozing out in spite of the fact the government is controlled by the Republicans. Consider the implications of that.

A top Republican lobbyist owned up to multi-million dollar fraud and swaying lawmakers with lavish gifts, in a plea deal which will lift the lid from one of the most explosive Washington scandals in decades. Jack Abramoff, a wheeler dealer linked with figures like Tom Delay, former majority leader in the House of Representatives, sent shivers through Congress by agreeing to tell all to prosecutors in return for a reduced sentence. “Words will not be able to ever express how sorry I am for this, and I have profound regret and sorrow for the multitude of mistakes and harm I have caused,” Abramoff, 46, said at a brief appearance at US District Court. “I only hope that I can merit forgiveness from the Almighty and those I have wronged,” said the former powerbroker in the dollar-soaked Washington lobbying community. Abramoff pleaded guilty to conspiracy, fraud and tax evasion, and must repay 26.7 million dollars in defrauded payments, as a condition of the deal which will see him testify against former congressional associates. In a statement of facts filed in court, he admitted bilking millions of dollars from Indian tribes he was paid to represent. […]

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Secret Services Say Iran is Trying to Assemble a Nuclear Missile

Stephan: 

The Iranian government has been successfully scouring Europe for the sophisticated equipment needed to develop a nuclear bomb, according to the latest western intelligence assessment of the country’s weapons programmes. Scientists in Tehran are also shopping for parts for a ballistic missile capable of reaching Europe, with “import requests and acquisitions … registered almost daily”, the report seen by the Guardian concludes. The warning came as Iran raised the stakes in its dispute with the United States and the European Union yesterday by notifying the International Atomic Energy Authority that it intended to resume nuclear fuel research next week. Tehran has refused to rule out a return to attempts at uranium enrichment, the key to the development of a nuclear weapon. The 55-page intelligence assessment, dated July 1 2005, draws upon material gathered by British, French, German and Belgian agencies, and has been used to brief European government ministers and to warn leading industrialists of the need for vigilance when exporting equipment or expertise to so-called rogue states. It concludes that Syria and Pakistan have also been buying technology and chemicals needed to develop rocket programmes and to enrich uranium. It outlines the role played by […]

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Top Forecaster Sees U.S. Recession

Stephan: 

The U.S. bond market’s most accurate forecaster, who plies his trade 500 miles from Wall Street, says yields are sending ominous signs about the economy. While economists at the biggest bond-trading firms wrongly predicted that the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield would end last year at 5 percent, a University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, professor came a lot closer to getting it right. “It was luck, partly,” said James F. Smith, 67, who teaches finance at the school. “The other reason is the anticipation that inflation would be contained and that continued rate increases from the Federal Reserve would keep longer-maturity investors enthused about their returns.” Smith turned out to be the top forecaster in Bloomberg’s January survey of 66 economists. He predicted the benchmark 10-year yield would end the year at 4.49 percent. At the time, the yield was about 4.27 percent and the median estimate was for it to climb to 5.04 percent by Dec. 31. It finished 2005 at 4.39 percent. Yields move inversely to bond prices. “Those Wall Street gurus have bigger expense accounts than I have total income,” Smith said. Smith said the bond market is waving a caution […]

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