The Illusion of Calm in Tibet

Stephan: 

Visitors to Rongwo Monastery, a sprawling 700-year-old complex on the edge of the Tibetan plateau, might notice little untoward. There are no open signs of protest, of the sort that presaged vicious rioting in Tibet in March. But in one shrine a monk chants near a portrait of the Dalai Lama, prominently displayed despite the government’s diatribes against the exiled spiritual leader. And police cars patrol the streets nearby: nervous, say residents, that protests could erupt anew. Security around Rongwo, as it is known to Tibetans (its Chinese name, like that of the adjacent town, is Longwu), is far less visible than it was a few weeks ago when police surrounded the monastery, raided monks’ quarters and took many away to jail. No police are to be seen inside the hillside monastery. But a monk says some 200 of his colleagues in the 500-strong community have been detained since Rongwo joined the wave of protests that swept the plateau. Many are still in custody, and, says the monk, it is ‘very tense’. Near Rongwo is a much smaller monastery, which until recently was a popular destination for lovers of Tibetan religious artefacts, production of which creates hundreds of jobs […]

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U.S. and Iraq Near a ‘Bridge’ Deal on Status of U.S. Troops

Stephan:  Now we are going to watch the humiliating two-step of the administration rationalizing why U.S. forces can't leave as quickly as the Iraqi government wishes us to. It will get down to the allocation of oil agreement, and whether American oil companies get a big taste. The final act of a tragic dark farce that has cost so many thousands of American families the lives they should have had.

BAGHDAD — By the end of July, US and Iraqi officials hope to finalize a deal that would map out the role and length of stay for US troops in the country. But this is likely to be a temporary ‘bridge’ agreement, including specific goals for terms of US withdrawal from major cities, followed by further talks on a long-term status of forces agreement (SOFA), says a senior US administration official involved in the talks here. The US shift to a short-term deal follows comments last week by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki suggesting for the first time that a timetable be set for the departure of US troops. On Saturday, Democratic presidential hopeful Barack Obama said that ‘we need a timetable for withdrawal’ and that the US should not commit to a long-term occupation of Iraq, But a key question is whether any deal can be sold to Iraq’s political factions in an election year. The Iraqi government is beset by divisions and conflicting agendas with regard to the status of US forces that are playing out both in the media and in private. There is strong opposition to any deal from the influential Shiite […]

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Nouri al-Maliki Ready to Oust US From Iraq Green Zone

Stephan:  The offshore subsidiaries of American oil companies may possibly see some money from all this, but do you think the American taxpayers who have been spending $12 billion a month for several years, and whose economy is in the toilet, will ever see a dime? Don't hold you breath.

BAGHDAD — The green zone of Baghdad, a highly fortified slice of American suburbia on the banks of the Tigris river, may soon be handed over to Iraqi control if the increasingly assertive government of Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, gets its way. A senior Iraqi government official said this weekend the enclave should revert to Iraqi control by the end of the year. ‘We think that by the end of 2008 all the zones in Baghdad should be integrated into the city,’ said Ali Dabbagh, the government’s spokesman. ‘The American soldiers should be based in agreed camps outside the cities and population areas. ‘By the end of the year, there will be no green zone,’ he added. ‘The separation by huge walls makes people feel angry.’ Dabbagh acknowledged that getting rid of the green zone would be a huge undertaking, given the thousands of American soldiers, private contractors and foreign workers who live inside. He said the concrete walls that divide it from the rest of the city would be taken down slowly, ‘depending on the threat and circumstances’. The prospect may prove disconcerting for the Americans, who have just begun to transfer their diplomatic […]

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Analysts Say More Banks Will Fail

Stephan: 

As home prices continue to decline and loan defaults mount, federal regulators are bracing for dozens of American banks to fail over the next year. But after a large mortgage lender in California collapsed late Friday, Wall Street analysts began posing two crucial questions: Just how many banks might falter? And, more urgently, which one could be next? The nation’s banks are in far less danger than they were in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when more than 1,000 federally insured institutions went under during the savings-and-loan crisis. The debacle, the greatest collapse of American financial institutions since the Depression, prompted a government bailout that cost taxpayers about $125 billion. But the troubles are growing so rapidly at some small and midsize banks that as many as 150 out of the 7,500 banks nationwide could fail over the next 12 to 18 months, analysts say. Other lenders are likely to shut branches or seek mergers. ‘Everybody is drawing up lists, trying to figure out who the next bank is, No. 1, and No. 2, how many of them are there,’ said Richard X. Bove, the banking analyst with Ladenburg Thalmann, who released a list of […]

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In IndyMac’s Wake, Are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Safe?

Stephan:  Where were the watchdogs, where were the regulators? Once again, as with the EPA, the FDA, the Justice Department, the Forestry Service, and a host of other agencies the corruption and incompetence that arose from appointing ideological party hacks to positions of trust has left us, as a society, defenseless. The Bush administration has been the most nefarious regime in American history.

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are private companies with deep ties to the government. Fannie Mae was created during the Depression as part of the New Deal as a way to revive a collapsed housing market by providing mortgage guarantees to low- and middle-income Americans. Today they own or guarantee a mind-boggling $5 trillion in loans far more than any other lender, which is why the fear that they could go under has been so nerve rattling. ‘If they were to go out of business, most of middle America would not be able to get a mortgage,’ said Howard Shapiro, an analyst for global adviser Fox-Pitt, Kelton. Even if you haven’t heard of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, there’s a good chance, if you’re a homeowner, they own your loan. Here’s how it works: After a bank gives you a mortgage, it often packages it with other mortgages and sells it, most often to Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. If Fannie and Freddie were to fail, analysts say mortgage rates would soar, mortgage lending would grind to a halt and borrowers of all kinds would pay higher rates sinking the economy […]

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