A new analysis from the Pacific Institute finds that climate change and its effect on freshwater supplies may lead to more cross-border conflicts over shared water resources if countries don’t start preparing now.

The analysis, conducted by the California-based research institute and the United Nations Environment Programme, echoes recent Circle of Blue reports on shared freshwater resources serving as a flashpoint for international conflicts. As climate change alters patterns of water supply and demand, as well as flood and drought, existing water agreements may no longer apply as new disputes arise.

Heather Cooley, a senior research associate with the Pacific Institute and one of the report’s authors, told Circle of Blue that for decades researchers have said that change pressures aggravate water tensions, even between governments that already have agreements in place.

‘There have been some efforts to try to evaluate the impacts of climate change, look at shortage requirements within these agreements