After the first presidential debate, opinion polls showed what most ‘analysts’ were also saying: that Mitt Romney had done well, Barack Obama had done poorly, and what had seemed an insuperable Obama lead was shrinking by the day.

Since the second debate, and especially in the past three days, Republican commentators have been saying what the polls are not showing: that Romney has ‘momentum,’ that he’s on an unstoppable roll, that their side is getting ready for an inevitable win. Anyone who has watched Fox, been on Republican email lists, or followed even ‘mainstream’ ‘savvy’ commentary has seen this shift. Michael Tomasky talks about this tone taking over the press ‘narrative’ here.

Meanwhile, this is what the most-frequently-cited poll-of-polls, from Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight, has shown during very same period. Obama’s re-election probability is shown in blue.

The big drop in Obama’s probability-of-win*, from a high of 86% to a low of 61% by Silver’s calculation, came immediately after that first debate. But a week later, that decline stopped — and then reversed, as it has through the subsequent ten days. (Similarly, see Votamatic.org. Eg, ‘The reality in the states – regardless of how close the national polls may make the election seem […]