As Thanksgiving approaches and leaves and temperatures start to fall across the country, heat waves are probably the last thing on anyone’s mind. But ever since the Fifth Assessment Report by the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was released in September, a group of researchers from the Rollins School of Public Health at Emory University in Atlanta have been using these latest projections to understand the rising human toll of a warmer future.

Their findings are sobering. Heat waves will kill about ten times more people in the Eastern United States in 45 years than they did at the turn of this century. In 2002-2004, an average of 187 people in the eastern third of the U.S. succumbed to heat waves. By 2057-2059, that number will rise to over 2,000. The study results were published online this week in the journal Environmental Health Perspectives.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control, 660 people die nationwide from heat waves each year, making it the leading cause of weather-related mortality in the country. The CDC defines heat waves as ‘several days of temperatures greater than 90° F; warm, stagnant air masses; and consecutive nights with higher-than-usual minimum temperatures.