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Monday, September 1st, 2014

In Swing States, Is Obamacare an Asset?

Author:     SAM WANG
Source:     The New Yorker
Publication Date:     August 22, 2014
 Link: In Swing States, Is Obamacare an Asset?
Stephan:   Sam Wang, and the Princeton Election Consortium, are doing some of the best assessment work of current political trends. Here is an example, a very good databased look at the gubernatorial races. These elections matter, governors can really screw with people's lives, or support and nurture them. Who gets chosen makes a difference, as Wisconsinites have learned to their peril.
Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 2013. CREDIT PHOTOGRAPH BY JOHN EHLKE/DAILY NEWS/AP

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, 2013.
CREDIT PHOTOGRAPH BY JOHN EHLKE/DAILY NEWS/AP

Scott Walker, the Governor of Wisconsin, is in electoral jeopardy. This may come as a surprise, because for most of 2014 he was considered an odds-on favorite for reëlection against his Democratic challenger, Mary Burke. Recent surveys show that his median lead over Burke has narrowed from seven points, at its peak, to just half a point. The Princeton Election Consortium model (of which I’m a founder)* estimates that Walker’s probability for reëlection is fifty-five per cent, which is barely better than even odds.

Walker achieved prominence in both Republican and Democratic circles when he took away collective-bargaining power from government-employee unions. This was met with angry backlash, leading to massive protests and a recall election, in 2011, which Walker survived, making him a hero to Republicans and leading some to tout him as a potential Presidential candidate. This year, Burke, the C.E.O. of Trek Bicycle Corporation, has run a campaign focussed almost entirely on being […]

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