IMF Say Brexit Will Batter the Global Economy

Stephan:  The media spotlight on BREXIT has moved on to other topics; the media rarely has time to see trends. But that doesn't mean the BREXIT trend has changed its momentum, or lost any of its importance. Increasingly I see economists taking hard looks and coming away with shaking heads. Here, in a conservative journal, is a good composite of their views and they suggest there is great unclarity about the future, but that the world economy, and particularly the economy of the UK, may be in for a rough patch long term.

IMF LogoThe International Monetary Fund says Brexit was a big mistake.

In a report issued Tuesday, the bank predicted that as a result of Britain’s decision to exit the European Union, the U.K economy will grow 0.2 percentage points slower, or 1.7%, this year and 0.7 percentage points slower, or 1.3%, in 2017. Notably, this means that the British economy will avoid a recession, despite many analysts predictions that leaving the EU would plunge Great Britain and Northern Ireland into negative growth.

The IMF argued that the reason the U.K economy will grow slower boils down to increased uncertainty. “This uncertainty is projected to take a toll on confidence and investment, including through its repercussions on financial conditions and market sentiment more generally,” the report reads. The basic idea is that British businesses will hold off on new investment projects until they understand what the trade rules between the U.K. and the rest of the world will be.

Other analysts aren’t so pessimistic, however. On Thursday, the Bank of England released the July 2016 update of its Summary of Business Conditions, which surveys U.K. businesses on their attitudes toward the economy. According […]

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Donald Trump’s Many Business Failures, Explained

Stephan:  I consider Donald Trump not from the prospective of political partisanship, but because I see him as the personification of two major trends. First, the American culture's fearful response to becoming a majority minority nation in which being born White will no longer confer privilege, and second as society's reaction to the corruption of our democracy and the rise of the oligarchy which is itself part of a third trend, the ascent of the Neo-feudalism. The rise of multinational corporate states as the real power centers in the 21st century. The fact that Trump is probably a Narcissistic Sociopath, is incapable of telling the truth, and a grifter as a business person makes his real significance even clearer. He is all those things yet still the adored  choice of millions of American voters. This is telling us something important not about Trump but about ourselves as a society.
im Williams, of Calvi Electric, lowers the 'M' letter from the signage of Trump Plaza Casino to his co-workers Tony Demidio and Steven Nordaby in Atlantic City, New Jersey October 6, 2014. Credit: Mark Makela/Reuters

Jim Williams, of Calvi Electric, lowers the ‘M’ letter from the signage of Trump Plaza Casino to his co-workers Tony Demidio and Steven Nordaby in Atlantic City, New Jersey October 6, 2014.
Credit: Mark Makela/Reuters

Donald Trump was thundering about a minority group, linking its members to murderers and what he predicted would be an epic crime wave in America. His opponents raged in response—some slamming him as a racist—but Trump dismissed them as blind, ignorant of the real world.

No, this is not a scene from a recent rally in which the Republican nominee for president stoked fears of violence from immigrants or Muslims. The year was 1993, and his target was Native Americans, particularly those running casinos who, Trump was telling a congressional hearing, were sucking up to criminals.

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Trump, who […]

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Scientists flip energy equation with solar leaf that converts CO2 into fuel

Stephan:  Here is some fascinating potentially very good news. The thing that is amazing to me, but often goes unremarked is that as soon as the narcotic pall of petroleum addiction lifted and researchers began to seriously look at alternatives they cropped up everywhere -- this is simply the latest of many such developments. It suggests that had we seen ourselves embedded in a matrix of life in which all life was interconnected and interdependent, and not from  a Dominonist perspective in which we perceived ourselves as detached from the Earth's great metaystems, we could have avoided climate change altogether. Think about that for a moment.
At a lab at the University of Illinois, simulated sunlight powers a solar cell that converts atmospheric carbon dioxide directly into syngas. Credit: University of Illinois at Chicago

At a lab at the University of Illinois, simulated sunlight powers a solar cell that converts atmospheric carbon dioxide directly into syngas.
Credit: University of Illinois at Chicago

Researchers at the University of Illinois at Chicago say the fuel from carbon dioxide can remove the greenhouse gas from the atmosphere, and provides a sustainable type of fuel that is as cheap as a gallon of gas. It’s often smarter to borrow from nature than reinvent the wheel.

That was the approach of researchers to remove carbon dioxide (CO2 ) from the atmosphere, and convert it into an efficient, inexpensive fuel.

The result: an artificial leaf that turns CO2  into fuel, “at a cost comparable to a gallon of gasoline” could render fossil fuel obsolete, according to the researchers.

The “leaf” is one of a growing number of inventions that mimic photosynthesis to remove excess carbon from the atmosphere, and convert it […]

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Zillow projects $882 billion in housing losses to sea level rise by 2100

Stephan:  This report is yet another confirmation of what I have been saying in SR for almost a decade: sea rise is going to displace millions and result in billions upon billions of real estate losses. This report focuses on Washington State, which actually gets off far more lightly that the Southeastern U.S. which is going to be devastated, and even here the impact will change the state forever. If you own coastal property I would say you have another 15-20 years before this trend really penetrates mass consciousness and coastal real estate starts to go down in value.

zillow logoIf everything stays as it is: Humans keep pumping CO2 into the atmosphere and the seas rise six feet by 2100, AND no more houses or suburbs or cities are built on U.S. coastlines, then the housing market will only take a nearly trillion-dollar hit.

No big deal, I guess. After all, that’s decades from now! Live it up!

Accept that sea level rise, ocean acidification, weather-pattern shifts, etc., will be ramping up over those decades, not happening all at once in some mythical future. You know, going from inches to feet to yards over mere decades. So … yeah yeah yeah … enough of the inexpert lecture.

 Here’s what Zillow said in a news release:

“As we move through this century, homeowners will have to consider another factor when it comes to their homes – whether rising sea levels have any impact on them,” said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. “It’s easy to think about how the ocean levels can affect the coasts in an abstract sense, but this analysis shows the real impact it will have on nearly two million homeowners – and most likely more by the […]

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America is the No. 1 arms dealer: Yet why do trends in weapon exports remain in relative obscurity?

Stephan:  Speaking for myself, I do not like it that my country's war industries are the world's largest merchants of death. I recognize that weapons, bombs, armored vehicles, and warplanes are incredibly profitable for the few, but it is murderous for the many and leaves the world in ruins. How do you feel about this?

When American firms dominate a global market worth more than $70 billion a year, you’d expect to hear about it. Not so with the global arms trade. It’s good for one or two stories a year in the mainstream media, usually when the annual statistics on the state of the business come out.

It’s not that no one writes about aspects of the arms trade. There are occasional pieces that, for example, take note of the impact of U.S. weapons transfers, including cluster bombs to Saudi Arabia, or of the disastrous dispensation of weaponry to U.S. allies in Syria, or of foreign sales of the costly, controversial F-35 combat aircraft. And once in a while, if a foreign leader meets with the president, U.S. arms sales to his or her country might generate an article or two. But the sheer size of the American arms trade, the politics that drive it, the companies that profit from it, and its devastating global impacts are rarely discussed, much less analyzed in any depth.

So here’s a question that’s puzzled me for years (and I’m something of an arms wonk): Why […]

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