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NEW YORK — The first piece of news Americans woke up to on November 9th was that Donald Trump had been elected president. The second was that he owed his victory to a massive swing towards Republicans by white voters without college degrees across the north of the country, who delivered him the rustbelt states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania—all by one percentage point or less. Pundits had scoffed at Mr Trump’s plan to transform the Wall Street-friendly Republicans into a “workers’ party”, and flip the long-Democratic industrial Midwest: Hillary Clinton had led virtually every poll in these states, mostly by comfortable margins. But it was the plutocratic Donald who enjoyed the last laugh.

In the aftermath of the stunning result, statistical analysts homed in on blue-collar whites as never before. Although pre-election polls showed Mr Trump with a 30-percentage-point advantage among whites without a college degree, exit polls revealed he actually won them by almost 40 points. Unsurprisingly, the single best predictor identified so far of the change from 2012 to 2016 in the share of each county’s eligible voters […]

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