Since early March I’ve written five articles that focus on supply and demand dynamics in the cobalt mining sector and explain why I believe the lithium-ion battery industry is facing a raw materials shortage of epic proportions. Today I’ll drill down into market dynamics within the lithium-ion battery industry and explain why I believe cheap lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles (EVs) will be the first casualties of the Cobalt Cliff.

I want to begin with an explanation that I’ve derived most of the numbers in this article by digitizing graphs from Avicenne Energy’s presentation at AABC 2016 in Mainz, Germany, a process that’s inherently imprecise. While I believe my estimates are close enough to offer a good overview, digitization is dependent on the visual acuity of the human being running the software and like most humans I’m imperfect on my best days.

Based on a careful analysis of Avicenne’s graphs I’ve estimated that in 2015 the lithium-ion battery industry manufactured cells with 61,500 MWh of capacity and generated $17.2 billion in revenue, which works out to an industry-wide average revenue of $280 per kWh at […]

Read the Full Article