“The automation of factories has already decimated jobs in traditional manufacturing, and the rise of artificial intelligence is likely to extend this job destruction deep into the middle classes, with only the most caring, creative or supervisory roles remaining.” — Stephen Hawking
There’s a rising chorus of concern about how quickly robots are taking away human jobs.
Here’s Elon Musk on Thursday at the the World Government Summit in Dubai:
“What to do about mass unemployment? This is going to be a massive social challenge. There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better [than a human]. These are not things that I wish will happen. These are simply things that I think probably will happen.” — Elon Musk
And today Bill Gates proposed that governments start taxing robot workers the same way we tax human workers:
“You cross the threshold of job-replacement of certain activities all sort of at once. So, you know, warehouse work, driving, room cleanup, there’s quite a few things that are meaningful […]
I think this is being over-estimated.
Robots and AI have been around for decades and although they are doing more things, it is important to remember that AI is not genuinely intelligent. It merely simulates some aspects of intelligence, such as algorithmic behavior.
As we have seen with the Tesla crashes, when you reach the edge of machine intelligence they tend to fail catastrophically, and the cost of including the edge cases rises exponentially. A human would have easily coped with the problems that caused those crashes.
On a daily basis our real intelligence helps us cope with a range of situations that is far beyond the scope of any existing or likely to exist AI. It took enormous effort and resources to build the machines that beat human masters at games like Go and Chess. What we do on a daily basis is thousands of times more complicated than that.
If nothing else, the bulk of human effort will move into activities that the machines can’t do. This may lead to a new economy of sharing by urban and agrarian peasants who live a largely subsistence existence.
If this goes really far they will have to implement a guaranteed annual income.
I do not think this issue is being over-estimated. From the final sentence in your post, it seems you aren’t so sure either.
For one example, robots are already being deployed in retail settings, interacting with people as customer service reps. Retail workers will eventually be replaced by robots except for a handful of human supervisors. It may even come to expensive boutiques being the only stores where humans actually wait on customers. This will be considered “upscale” and a point of branding and marketing, and customers will pay a premium for it. Businesses that cater to the wealthy are always looking for ways to “separate” their clientele from the masses–this could be one. One possible campaign: “Target has robots; we have you.”
The bulk of retail jobs will be gone. I don’t see where all those thousands of workers “will move into activities that the machines can’t do.” It’ll be the same with drivers of all kinds. The bugs will get worked out for driverless vehicles. Yes, there will still be accidents, but I doubt at the rate of human error, and I will be glad not to have drunk drivers on the road. Once again, thousands of workers eventually made obsolete. How are these people going to support themselves?
On a personal note, I am going back to school to become a lawyer (I’m 48 and this will be my third career). I really wanted to do legal research, however, last year a robot was introduced that performs that task so much faster (http://www.businessinsider.com/law-firms-are-starting-to-use-robot-lawyers-2016-7). It’s good news for keeping legal costs down and giving more people access to legal services. Unfortunately, I will have to look for a different career path in law. In 6 years when I finish law school, I expect technology will have changed things even more. I worry about taking on student debt with all the ways technology is impacting professions.
PSE&G are already trying to strong-arm new digital meter replacements so they can lay off many former meter readers.
In some ways, when I think about this, it seems as if burgeoning, rapacious consumer society that races forward without giving a thought to tipping point of what the planet can provide is in actuality a monster that’s consuming itself. In other words, if countless people are out of work, who will be able to buy the products companies produce? There’s a wonderful irony to that! And without a truly enlightened govt, providing a universal income is full of potentially harmful traps.
As of this moment, after years of Climate Change research, and the ramping up of those effects, I believe that very soon we’re going to see extraordinary societal changes. We already are. And they’re happening faster and faster. In the next two to five years, there will be mass flash migrations inside US borders, that will affect the workplace, food systems, water and increasing social unrest. I’ve lived in countries where drinkable water, or any water was lacking and witnessed the resulting armed conflict.
There will be rolling blackouts due to climate events, etc. Buying power will diminish for all those reasons and more.
I applaud those who are conceiving of, building new systems of support on community levels. I realize it’s very hard to get one’s mind around what’s happening and where that might lead. On the other hand, life and death situations have historically brought out the best in humankind.