Tuesday, December 19th, 2017
Stephan: Sea rise is also going to be much worse than most people understand, and it will be happening sooner than was originally understood. According to the paper "Evolving Understanding of Antarctic Ice-Sheet Physics and Ambiguity in Probabilistic Sea-Level Projections," upon which this popular report in Fortune is based, "without protective measures, by 2100... land currently home to more than 153 million people" will be submerged.
Given that close to 47% of the U.S. population lives near or on a coast, that means that the house in which most of you live, and the buildings where you go to work, will be partially or completely submerged. It won't happen overnight all at once. These things move in stages. So in the much more immediate future expect to see flooding crises at a zip code near you.
Citation for the research paper: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000663/full
Sea level rises of just eight inches produce devastating flooding effects from storms.
Credit: John G Wilbanks/Alamy
Sea levels could rise twice what was previously anticipated during the 21st century, according to a new study that factors in emerging research about the unstable Antarctic Ice Sheet.
The study, published in the open access journal Earth’s Future, addresses newly prominent worries, like the disintegration of floating ice shelves and widespread ice-cliff failure, which could lead to the sudden collapse of parts of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. If the ice sheet were to collapse and melt completely, which had previously seemed highly unlikely, it would cause sea levels worldwide to rise almost 200 feet.
The study goes on to lay out new projections for sea levels city by city around the world, which could be far more dire than originally predicted.
The U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a median sea level rise of two feet and five inches by 2100 under a high emissions scenario. By contrast, the new Earth’s Future study, as […]