Ratings of U.S. leadership fell in nearly every part of the world in the first year of Donald Trump’s presidency, dragging median approval to a record-low 30%. (emphasis added)

Curious about the true depth of a “Trump effect” on U.S. leadership ratings, we created a model to estimate the change in the probability that a similar respondent who approved of U.S. leadership in Barack Obama’s last year also approved in Trump’s first year. The model revealed evidence of a Trump effect in all major demographics, but the effect was more acute among some groups than others.

Shifts in U.S. Approval Largest Among Educated, Higher-Income, Urban Dwellers

Approval of U.S. leadership dropped across all demographic groups during Trump’s first year, but groups that typically give U.S. leadership higher approval ratings — those with more education, those earning higher incomes and those who live in urban areas — registered the largest declines.

Holding other demographic variables at mean values, the probability that a respondent with a tertiary education (12 years or more of formal education) approved of U.S. leadership fell from 60.7% in 2016 […]