Rectangles are painted on the ground to encourage homeless people to keep social distancing at a city-sanctioned homeless encampment across from City Hall in San Francisco, California, on May 22, 2020, amid the novel coronavirus pandemic.
Credit: Josh Edelson / AFP / Getty

The rash of layoffs sparked by the coronavirus pandemic and statewide lockdowns are expected to increase homelessness by up to 45%, according to a new analysis by an economist at Columbia University.

The analysis estimates that about 250,000 people could be left homeless as a result of skyrocketing unemployment. The Department of Housing and Urban Development estimated that there were 568,000 homeless people in the country in January, before the outbreak.

Dr. Brendan O’Flaherty, a professor of economics who has studied homelessness for decades and conducted the analysis, said the projected rise would be “unprecedented.”

“No one living has seen an increase of 10% of unemployment in a month,” he said.

O’Flaherty’s model relied on homelessness data in an earlier study published by the Journal of Housing Economics in 2017, which found that every 1% increase to the unemployment rate corresponded with […]

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