With Donald Trump sagging in the polls against Joe Biden, the internal Republican debate about what a post-Trump GOP might look like is growing louder. And that dialogue is underscoring how hard it may be for Republicans to abandon the confrontational and divisive direction he has set for the party, no matter what happens in November.

The debate obviously will be shaped by whether he wins or loses—and if he loses, whether by a narrow margin or resounding one that costs Republicans control of the Senate. But there’s no guarantee that even a substantial Trump defeat, which more Republicans are now bracing for, will persuade the GOP to change course.

Almost all observers in both parties that I’ve spoken with agree that a Trump loss will embolden the Republicans who have been most skeptical about his message and agenda to more loudly press their case. Yet many remain dubious that whatever happens in November, those critics can assemble a majority inside the party by 2024—one that’s eager to reconsider the racial nationalism and anti-elite populism that has electrified big […]