Stephan: It is perfectly obvious to everyone, I should think, that once again the pollster community got hosed by the American population. The big question, of course, is how did this happen? I think the answer is that most people do not tell the truth when polled. It's a spectrum from hedging to outright lying. The reason is that what is really driving people is a taboo subject. The United States is going to become a majority-minority nation, according to the Census Bureau, by 2045. Very few people define themselves as racists, although that is their real position.
You can not support a man like Trump unless something overrides any concerns you have regarding his criminality, the corruption, the recurring sexually aggressive incidents. What is that? I think it is three things that align to create this trend: White supremacy, male dominance, and christofascism, and although someone will tell you their religious beliefs, only a minority will tell you they are racists. On top of that, one must add that the Trump population live in a non-fact basis reality. One has to watch and read a lot of this parallel university to understand, how thoroughly different that world is. Fox is the on the edge of that world; it gets much weirder.
The technology of polling must be transformed until it gives accurate answers. It is clearly not reliable.
Election polling is facing yet another reckoning following its uneven-at-best performance in this year’s voting.
Although the outcome in the 2020 presidential race remained uncertain the next day, it was evident that polls collectively faltered, overall, in providing Americans with clear indications as to how the election would turn out.
And that misstep promises to resonate through the field of survey research, which was battered four years ago when Donald Trump carried states such as Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, where polls indicated he had almost no chance of winning. Prominent, poll-based statistical forecasts also went off-target in 2016.
Those failings deepened the embarrassment for a field that has suffered through – but has survived – a variety of lapses and surprises since the mid-1930s. Many of those flubs and failings are described in my latest book, “Lost in a Gallup: Polling Failure in U.S. Presidential Elections.”
Criticism was intense in some quarters Wednesday. Politico’s widely followed “Playbook” newsletter was notably scathing. “The polling industry is a wreck,” it declared, […]
There could be a simpler explanation:
The voting machines could be rigged in at least 3 key states–Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania… and the mail-in votes saved the day.
In which case the conservatives will do all they can to prevent that from happening again.
Sounds like conspiracy theory, but who really knows?
There could be a simpler explanation:
The voting machines could be rigged in at least 3 key states–Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania… and the mail-in votes saved the day.
In which case the conservatives will do all they can to prevent that from happening again.
Sounds like conspiracy theory, but who really knows?