In February, Ron DeSantis led Donald Trump 45 percent to 41 percent in the Yahoo/YouGov poll. But Trump’s indictment has reversed the race. Just after Trump said he would be arrested, he moved into the lead — 47 percent to 39 percent. Now, after his arraignment, Trump’s lead over DeSantis has widened — 57 percent to 31 percent.

What’s going on? Trump’s high-decibel howls of anger and grievance and his vitriolic charges of a “deep state” aligned against him are rallying Republicans to his side. He is blaming his indictment on a racist and antisemitic conspiracy theory. He has threatened the judge, the prosecutor, and their families with violence. And of course he continues to repeat his Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen.

But the commotion isn’t increasing Trump’s odds of being elected president in November 2024. To the contrary, it’s reducing those odds.

Remember, only about 28 percent of American voters identify as Republican. And as Republicans move back to Trump, another group of voters that will likely determine the outcome of the 2024 election is […]

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