Following what is expected to be the warmest year on record, next year could bring massive coral bleaching events that disrupt marine ecosystems. 

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, a marine studies professor at the University of Queensland, Australia, is predicting that coral reefs will experience dramatic bleaching. Hoegh-Guldberg and colleagues shared their predictions in a “Perspectives” piece for Science.org.

Bleaching events can occur as a stress response to things such as increasing ocean temperatures and pollution, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). 

Currently, the world is experiencing an El Niño event, which is likely to last through March 2024, which can influence warmer ocean temperatures. The current El Niño phenomenon could then be followed by a second El Niño year. As The Guardian reported, every instance where there has been a pair of El Niño years since 1997 has been followed by mass coral bleaching around the world.

“The probability is that somewhere in the next 12 […]