On the surface, the 2024 fight between Democrats and Republicans to control the House resulted in continuation of the status quo.
In 2022, Republicans won a net of nine Democratic seats to gain a narrow, and at times dysfunctional, majority of 222–213. This year, Republicans retained control, winning an only slightly smaller majority of 220–215. (With the resignation of Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz and two more expected vacancies in January because of Trump administration appointments, that majority is expect to drop further temporarily to 217–215.)
But dig a little deeper, and the 2024 election offers important insights about the power of gerrymandering, the impact of redistricting reforms, and the role that courts play in fair outcomes (for both good and ill).
Competition Was Scarce, But Enough to Keep the Outcome Uncertain
Heading into Election Day, only 27 House districts were categorized as competitive by Cook Political Report. Other election forecasters had even fewer districts on their lists of tossup and lean districts. In the end, the field proved just about as thin as expected.
Only 37 districts — 22 won by a Democrat and 15 won by […]
The problem here is that we have a fundementally non-representative system from the start. It may have been, at one time, that the majority of voters were Democrat or Republican. That stopped being true long ago as the majority of voters are now “Independent”, being disgusted with the medicore and corrupt choices offered by the current system. If you are only having poor choices how independent can you be? That’s the point. It is the prominent feature of the system, not a bug. The system thrives on limited competition, when what we need is a multi-party democracy. Both major parties want single party rule and will do anything to get it. That’s why there is no competition in the vast majority of districts. The last time the House of Representatives was expanded was over a hundred years ago. When the House was last expanded the typical representative’s district was 300,000. Now the typical district is about 800,000. Does anyone really believe one person can represent 800,000 people? It doesn’t happen. Until we have a genuine multi-party system we will be staddled with incfreased corruption. Think outside the box.