It looks as though an increase in temperatures for the Great Plains region of just one degree Celsius could cut down wheat production in Kansas by over 20 percent. Even under optimistic scenarios, the region is probably headed for three times that amount of warming by the end of the century, making Kansas a microcosm for the damage carbon emissions will do to human society.

The researchers from Kansas State University actually carried out a three-pronged inquiry: to determine the effect of not just climate change, but also of disease and genetic improvements on the state’s wheat production. They looked at Kansas performance tests of wheat yields, as well as location-specific data for disease, weather, temperature, solar radiation, and even vapor pressure from 1985 to 2011. They then built computer models based off that data to tease out the effects.

On climate change specifically, the researchers found that a one degree Celsius increase in temperatures for the area would cut wheat yields by 10.64 bushels per acre. Since the mean yield for 1985 to 2011 was 50.59 bushels per acre, that comes out to a 21 percent decrease. And three degrees of warming would cut yields by 32.36 bushels per acre, or […]