The prospect of an early US withdrawal from Iraq has receded further after an intelligence assessment warned that a pull-out by coalition forces would only lead to a further surge in sectarian violence. The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq, which was presented to President George Bush yesterday, said a political reconciliation between Sunni and Shia factions is unlikely in the next 18 months. Even the sanitised version of the report made bleak reading, concluding that a single event – the killing of a political or religious leader, for example – could plunge the country into chaos. ‘The possibilities have the potential to convulse severely Iraq’s security environment,’ the report noted. The assessment represents the distilled wisdom of all 16 US spy agencies. It was published amid more bad news for the US on the ground in Iraq itself, as the Pentagon confirmed that a military helicopter went down near the Taji air base north of Baghdad. The craft was the fourth helicopter lost over the past month, all believed to have been shot down. No details were immediately available about casualties. ‘Clearly, ground fire has been more effective against our helicopters in the past couple […]