Friday, August 14th, 2015
Stephan: Back in the early 1970s I was appointed to the MIT/Secretary of Defense Study Group on Innovation, Technology, and the Future. At that time in futurist circles everyone was running around with their hands waving in the air over over-population.
Then researchers who were not bemused by this inevitability of over-population began to do reproduction rate studies and, lo, it was discovered that when women had the power to control their pregnancies, and had access to health services, birth rates went down, and that this was re-enforced by the worldwide migration of rural people into urban areas where space was tight and child farmworkers were not needed.
To special interest groups like the Theocratic Right the idea that women would be in control of their own bodies, and determine their own reproductive rate was anathema and this was augmented by the fact that in the U.S. this trend also developed a racial aspect. Whites had lower birth rates than poor Blacks and Hispanics, and the majority of immigrants were non-Whites, so over time Whites would become a minority, which is happening. But the great bass note of the trend has always remained that women overall seek in all cultures, and geographies to claim control over their bodies.
The result is described in this report, which is why I am publishing it. There is a lot of factual data here. However, I do this noting a major caveat: This article does not consider the impact of climate change on population rates. In fact I think by 2100 hundreds of millions, perhaps several billions of people are going to die, most through starvation and violence, directly in response to the changes wrought by climate change. I don't think over-population will be an issue at the end of the century.
In India, fertility rates are down to 2.48 children per woman.
Credit: Reuters/Danish Ismail
For the past 200 years the global population has risen explosively. There were 1 billion humans in 1850. There are 7.3 billion today. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, humanity has lived in quiet dread that somewhere there is a limit, and the Malthusian horsemen of plague, starvation and war will one day punish our effrontery.
Demographic change is easy to miss, because it happens slowly, but we stand on the cusp of a profound change in the human condition. New projections from the UN suggest that, in a few decades, we could secure a stable global population.
To be clear, the forecasts do not show an imminent end to population growth – far from it. The global population has the momentum of an elephant on an ice rink. The UN’s medium-variant projection shows a rise to 9.7 billion people in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.
But […]