In its end-of-year issue, Time magazine rather unsurprisingly named Donald Trump
its “Person of the Year.” More surprisingly, there was a subtitle under Trump’s cover p
hoto that stated, “President of the Divided States of America.”
Time ran no such subtitle when it recognized George W. Bush in 2000 or Bill Clinton in 1992 with its Person of the Year designation. Yet those presidents were elected, respectively, by a slim margin in the Electoral College or with less than 50% of the vote.
In fact, the popular-vote margin has been less than three percentage points in three of the past five elections, and it hasn’t come close to the traditional “landslide” threshold of 10 points since 1996, when Clinton beat Bob Dole by nine points.
Loser
Gap*
%
%
pct. pts.
2016
46.1
48.2
-2
2012
51.1
47.2
4
2008
52.9
45.7
7
2004
50.7
48.3
2
2000
47.9
48.4
-1
1996
49.2
40.7
9
1992
43.0
37.5
6
1988
53.4
45.7
8
1984
58.8
40.6
18
1980
50.5
41.0
10
1976
50.0
48.0
2
1972
60.2
37.2
23
1968
43.4
42.4
1
1964
61.1
38.7
22
1960
49.7
49.5
0
1956
57.4
42.0
15
1952
54.9
44.4
11
* Gap in the popular vote between the major-party candidates
CNN (2016); Roper Center (1952-2012)
Further, the average major-party popular-vote percentage over the last five presidential elections — since the eve of the 21st century — has been 48% for Republican Party candidates and 50% for Democratic Party candidates. So to say the outcomes in recent U.S. elections have tended […]
I think the devolution of the states into increasingly autonomous entities is the most optimistic possibility among several.
At this point we are basically trying to hold together as a single entity something akin to Iran and Denmark. Those are exaggerations obviously, but not by as much as it might seem. Minus the red states we would be much more like the best part of Europe and minus the blue states the US would be much more like a ‘christian’ version of Iran.
Our constitution’s logic is predicated on practical consensus, not majority rule, and there is no longer much practical consensus in this country. The reaction of so many Republicans to what they would demand intense investigations if a Democrat were accused is proof. Even the possibility of treason is not enough for them to care to seriously investigate the charges if it threatens their dominance. They are not Americans in the same sense that most Democrats are Americans.
Increasingly independent states can serve as cultural magnets facilitating people to move to where they feel most at home. This is already happening, and would increase as autonomy increases. That beats civil war or national fascism all over the place.
Plus since Russia’s decline, militarily the US has been the most powerful state by a huge margin, and was quickly corrupted by that power. A decline in military power would probably bring with it an increase in intelligence. As Nietzsche once quipped: “Power makes stupid.” In our case it most certainly has.
Well worth reading: Our Patchwork Nation (Chinni & Gimpel, 2011), and American Nations (Woodard, 2011).
It is interesting that psychic Edgar Cayce predicted the dissolution of the United States as well. I’ve had that little tidbit floating in my mind for a little while now.