It is easy to assume that escalating tensions between Russia and the West could mean an end to the blurry fudges of the post-Cold War years and a recasting of East-West relations into black and white antagonism, with two opposing camps, each surrounded by its own sphere of influence. But look at how the Georgia crisis is being received around Russia’s edges. The response is often evasive, and sometimes downright surprising. Among the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which 20 years ago were constituent parts of the USSR whose loyalty to Moscow was automatic, Russia has won remarkably few endorsements. Some Central Asian states have sent in aid to South Ossetia. But on the whole the response has been decidedly muted. To be fair, Georgia too has drawn criticism. But gone are the days when Moscow could rely on satellite states to speak up for it. For Russia’s leaders to declare that Russia was and always will be the ‘guarantor of stability’ in the Caucasus is now a risky statement that could repel as well as draw regional backing. Its neighbours are now independent countries whose priority is not to please the Kremlin […]