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Saturday, November 25th, 2017

Out of 42 top economists, only 1 believes the GOP tax bills would help the economy

Author:     Ezra Klein
Source:     VOX
Publication Date:     Nov 22, 2017, 12:50pm EST
 Link: Out of 42 top economists, only 1 believes the GOP tax bills would help the economy
Stephan:   I have been reading a lot of economics journals and reports trying to get a clear picture on what Trump and the Republicans are trying to do to the economy. Most of it is very opaque, and much of the conservative material is outright disinformation. This article though in clear terms gives a real report on the consensus that has become clear to me from my hours in the swamp.  The tax "reform" bills in both the House and the Senate right now, in my view, are a disaster waiting to happen should one of them, or some combination, be passed and signed into law.

Republican Speaker of the House, and Ayn Rand devotee, Paul Ryan (R-WI) .
Credit: Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

The University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business runs an ongoing survey of top economists spanning a wide number of specialties and political outlooks. The panel includes multiple Nobel Prize winners, White House veterans, and former presidents of the American Economic Association. Recently, they were asked about the Republican tax reform bills. The results weren’t encouraging.

The first question was straightforward. Would they agree that if the US passed a tax bill “similar to those currently moving through the House and Senate,” GDP would be “substantially higher a decade from now”? Of the 42 economists polled, only one thought the Republican bill would boost the economy. The plurality said it wouldn’t, and the remainder were uncertain or didn’t answer.

The survey includes an optional space for respondents to add a comment, and a few of the comments are notable. “Of course not,” wrote the University of Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee, who served as chief economist for President Obama. “Does anyone care […]

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