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Monday, July 9th, 2018

Electric Car Sales Promise Shock for Big Oil

Author:     Paul Brown
Source:     truthdig
Publication Date:     JUL 08, 2018 Electric
 Link: Electric Car Sales Promise Shock for Big Oil
Stephan:   The transition out of the carbon era is happening faster than American car makers are prepared for because they have tried to stretch-out the life of the manufacturing systems in which they are already invested. The effect will be a decline, and it is going to be accelerated by the tariffs, on automobiles, which will protect American carmakers from having to keep up, and keep carbon energy alive. Meanwhile remember that much of Europe, China, Singapore and other countries are committed to have no carbon vehicles on their roadways by 2040 -- 22 years. The damage being done to the United States by this president, and this congress is breath-taking.

Credit: Climate News Network

Oil and gas companies have underestimated probable electric vehicle sales and the effect they will have on their own businesses and profits, a new report says.

If the car manufacturers’ projections of future sales of electric cars are correct, then demand for oil will have peaked by 2027 or even earlier, sending the price of oil in a downward spiral as supply exceeds demand, says Carbon Tracker (CT), an independent financial think-tank carrying out in-depth analysis on the impact of the energy transition on capital markets.

It says fossil fuel companies have taken into account some engine fuel efficiencies and the effect they would have on oil demand, but not the expected increase in electric vehicles themselves. There is a big mismatch between forecasts of EV market penetration from vehicle manufacturers and from oil majors, says Laurence Watson, a CT data scientist.

“The oil industry is underestimating the disruptive potential of electric vehicles, which could reduce oil demand by millions of barrels a day. Increases in fuel efficiency will also eat into oil demand […]

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