Stephan: Back in the early 1970s, when I was a member of the MIT/Secretary of Defense Study Group on Innovation, Technology, and the Future, the "hot" subject was overpopulation. Endless academic articles and books confidently predicted its occurrence and speculated on its effects. It has all turned out to be wrong. Even before climate change has wrought its full impact it is already clear that in the developed nations the issue is how to get more babies born.
China has seen the effect of limiting couples to one baby and discovered the many downsides to this policy, and how hard it is to reverse it. (See SR archive) In the U.S., with our dreadful lack of social policies to support couples who want to have children, and a growing cultural shift where having multiple children, or any children, is not a priority, and fewer women choose that option, what we are seeing is fewer children and an aging population which will require more support. Japan is already facing this formidable situation.
Climate change, which was unknown in the 1970s, is going to further exacerbate the declining birthrate and, except in Africa, high birth rates are not going to be a social issue, and overpopulation a mistaken fantasy of the past.
In her cabin in the woods, Sarah Yurczyk tries to get her baby and her twins ready for bedtime in Cook, Minn. Sarah Yurczyk decided to be a stay at home mother because the price of child care would have taken 90% of her monthly salary. Credit: Melina Mara/The Washington Post
More U.S. adults who do not already have children are saying they are unlikely to ever have them, a new Pew Research Center survey finds — findings that could draw renewed attention to the risks of declining birthrates for industrialized nations.
Experts are concerned that the U.S. birthrate, which has declined for the sixth straight year, may not fuel enough population growth on its own to keep the future economy afloat and fund social programs.
Women between the ages of 18 to 49 and men between 18 and 59 who said they are not parents were asked the question, “Thinking about the future, how likely is it that you will have children someday?”
