Over the long weekend, Gallup released a poll that sent a shock wave through Democratic circles: There’s been a 14 point swing in party preference from Democratic to Republican in the past year. While 49% of Americans leaned Democratic and 40% leaned Republican in January 2021, at the beginning of 2022, the parties have nearly reversed positions. Now 47% of Americans prefer Republicans while a mere 42% prefer Democrats.

From one angle, it makes sense. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to be the dominant political issue, and President Joe Biden is getting blamed for it, even though the real cause is Republican pundits and politicians convincing their followers to be disease vectors in order to sabotage Biden’s presidency. The ongoing failure of Democrats to pass any of Biden’s political priorities can’t be helping, either, especially as the result is a drumbeat of headlines about Biden failing.

But it still is stunning to see this dramatic swing, […]