The United Nations’ most recent global climate report ‘fails to capture trends in Arctic sea-ice thinning and drift, and in some cases substantially underestimates these trends,’ says a new research from MIT. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, released in 2007, forecasts an ice-free Arctic summer by the year 2100.

However, the Arctic sea ice may be thinning four times faster than predicted, according to Pierre Rampal and his research team of MIT’S Department of Earth, Atmosphere, and Planetary Sciences (EAPS).

The research team’s findings will be published in the Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans.

After comparing IPCC models with actual data, Rampal and his collaborators concluded that the forecasts were significantly off. IPCC models focused on changes in temperature, which are one way to lose or gain ice. However, Rampal said that the report underestimates mechanical forces that contributed to ice-melting.

Mechanical forces like wind or ocean currents batter the ice causing it to break up. Ice in small pieces behave differently than ice in one large mass and are more susceptible to thinning due to temperature changes.

Wind and currents also play a significant role in winter, when they can cause ‘drastic effects’ on the ice’s shape and movement, said […]